The truth about Brexit

People today are trying to tell you that Brexit is “making a comeback” and “pulling ahead” of the “stay” vote. They claim the option of leaving Britain is at its highest, ever, and that Britain is definitely, totally leaving the European Union. The official narrative is that the leave option is gaining ground and becoming stronger by the minute - a last minute comeback, if you must. But look at this:


The “leave” option was once a whole 10 points ahead of the “stay” option. As recently as late 2014, a poll showed the “leave” was ahead by nearly 20 points.

Brexit gaining momentum is nothing new. The recent uptrend is pretty meaningless in the long term, with anywhere between 10% and 20% of people undecided.

Is Britain going to leave the European Union? I don’t know. I can say that I don’t think it will and that I bet against it, but everything is possible. Had the referendum happen 3 years ago - with “leave” ahead by 10 points - would they have won? Hard to say.

Do not believe the official clickbait narrative on Brexit. Brexit going up - or down - is nothing new at best. Obviously, the Orlando shooting helped the leave camp, much like the murder of MP Jo Cox will help the “stay” camp.

We’ll see what happens on the 23th. I would place a bet on “Staying” winning by a 55-60% to 45-40% margin.

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11 Responses to The truth about Brexit

    • F.S. Comeau June 17, 2016 at 1:40 am #

      I bet on Britain staying directly on Bet365.

      • Me June 17, 2016 at 6:41 pm #


        you should buy 6B futures tho

        anyways good luck

        (also the chance of UK leaving is not zero, those fuckers believe in separation e.g. GBP instead of EUR)

  1. archaic June 19, 2016 at 5:44 pm #

    any prediction on who will win the Euro 2016 ?

    • Me June 19, 2016 at 9:13 pm #


  2. wsb June 24, 2016 at 12:05 am #

  3. FSCuckmea June 24, 2016 at 1:57 am #

    HA HA

  4. Me June 25, 2016 at 12:32 am #

    GG fam

    For real though, don’t kill yourself now… You promised me a book remember?

  5. len June 25, 2016 at 1:16 am #

    The truth about Brexit:

    Unless you have inside information regarding every minute detail regarding said events like any other event, you shouldn’t gamble your money away.

    FS, you should write an article regarding how both, technical and fundamental information is largely pointless noise. You can seriously grab any piece of data and find interesting correlations in the markets- moon cycles, hibernating volcanoes, the sun, a skirt, P/E ratios, hidden bible codes.

    All the back tested data, however verified and objective it is, is filled with so many historical fallacies and biases that it won’t help anyone generate alpha, because you’re dealing with people and people’s expectations when it comes to managing future events.

    If market structure isn’t fully grasped, and for the most part, you’re not privy to such information, it’s best to just leave it alone.

  6. archaic June 25, 2016 at 10:07 am #

    Please take note that $RBS gapped up 5 times in a row

    was that a bullish technical set up into Friday ?

    Heck, no!

    It is just plain stupid to buy a stock hoping for a sixth consecutive gap up.

    (It obviously happens but rather seldomly and it is just not worth betting on it )

    So was that a no brainer short then ?

    well, no, but it could look that way for a technical analyst.

    the odds taken from the chart were certainly skewed towards the gap down!

    Buy of course one shouldn’t try to short the SPY/indexes,
    and the BREXIT ain’t going to happen.


  7. archaic June 27, 2016 at 7:34 am #


    One should not overcomplicate the analysis.
    Those who made a bet on Britain staying seem to have lost for two days in a row as $RBS is currently down 20% in premarket trading once again.

    and here is where a simple chart analysis comes to play. All can be said with certainty is that a rare opportunity to buy some large-cap British stocks for a bounce trade will present itself sooner or later. Hopefully we’ll get a clear reversal signal for that.

    The whole story somewhat reminds me of the BP oil split disaster in June 2010
    (Wow, I am really supposed to remember this?)
    The $BP stock has been cut basically in half but nevertheless managed to appreciate by ~50% from the lows.

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