People today are trying to tell you that Brexit is “making a comeback” and “pulling ahead” of the “stay” vote. They claim the option of leaving Britain is at its highest, ever, and that Britain is definitely, totally leaving the European Union. The official narrative is that the leave option is gaining ground and becoming stronger by the minute - a last minute comeback, if you must. But look at this:
The “leave” option was once a whole 10 points ahead of the “stay” option. As recently as late 2014, a poll showed the “leave” was ahead by nearly 20 points.
Brexit gaining momentum is nothing new. The recent uptrend is pretty meaningless in the long term, with anywhere between 10% and 20% of people undecided.
Is Britain going to leave the European Union? I don’t know. I can say that I don’t think it will and that I bet against it, but everything is possible. Had the referendum happen 3 years ago - with “leave” ahead by 10 points - would they have won? Hard to say.
Do not believe the official clickbait narrative on Brexit. Brexit going up - or down - is nothing new at best. Obviously, the Orlando shooting helped the leave camp, much like the murder of MP Jo Cox will help the “stay” camp.
We’ll see what happens on the 23th. I would place a bet on “Staying” winning by a 55-60% to 45-40% margin.