It is said that it takes a great man to admit he was wrong. Well, I am without a doubt a great man, so I will confess with no shame that I was 100% wrong on technical analysis.
It was one final key e-mail that finally opened my eyes:
you are such a big fucking tool its not even funny, ive spent years studying tech analysis and I read well over 100+ books on the topic and I can tell you it works really well when you know what you’re doing. you obviously don’t. I’ve seen and had workshops with some of the top professionals in the world that have been doing this longer than youve been alive, those people have made millions while you’ve made nothing but write silly articles about things you dont understand. there are concrete, defintive proofs that technical analysis work. it all depends on how skilled u r at recognizing patterns which you obviously arent
This Pullitzer-worthy e-mail was addressed to me by a fellow named “Dan” and it made me realize just how wrong I was. With such advanced linguistics skills, who am I to oppose the will of this veteran trader? I’m not even going to make fun of him and state, for instance, that those years studying technical analysis would have better been spent studying grammar (or anythign else, really) or state that “workshop” is the new catchy word to say “a whole lot of nothing.” Today, it’s not about conferences, it’s about “workshops.” What exactly is a workshop? I don’t know, you don’t know, nobody knows, but I’m pretty sure Dan spent a couple of thousands in those “workshops.” But no worry: it’s an investment, right?
In any event, Dan is fully right, and this eloquent missive made me realize just how wrong I was. For this reason, this website is now going to focus solely on Technical Analysis. In simple words, I believe that if we all followed the path that Dan traced for us, the world would be a better place.
We’ll start with my favorite stock:
1) Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
First, notice the price: $109.99. This is obviously rigged. If you had puts with a strike of $110 expiring today (a Friday), you’d make… 1 cent! This is obviously a way to tell you to get out of the market. Basically, the market is telling you: “If you don’t sell everything right now, you’re going to end up with a portfolio worth one cent.”
Also notice that every dividend on the graph if $0.52. A year has 52 weeks precisely - so the dividend gives you exactly one cent for each week in a year. Do you think this is a coincidence? Of course not. This dividend amount has been specifically chosen to relay a message from the Illuminatis.
Lastly, notice the graph starts with April 15. Isn’t it odd that the graph starts exactly one year ago? I think not. It’s almost like someone chose precisely a one year graph to expose a dubious point.
VERDICT: Sell every stock you have. Short the S&P500, a tactic that worked wonderfully well over the past 8 years.
2) Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Next on the list, we have everyone’s favorite, Tesla:
The red line on this graph is basically a “STOP.” Why else would it be red? When you drive your car and you see a red light, what do you do? You stop, obviously. So, stop.
Everytime the stock price touches the red line, you have to stop. Notice how it recently touched the red line in early 2016, only to bounce back. That’s because the red line told the stock to “stop” falling.
As for the green line, well, obviously, it means “go.” Notice that every time the stock price touches the green light, it falls shortly after. Except when it doesn’t, of course, but this is the exception that confirms the rule.
We just recently touched the green line. The stock is about to fall.
VERDICT: Strong sell, wait until we touch the red line.
3) GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO)
Look at the section of the graph I’ve highlighted; what does it look like? Well, to me, it looks like a middle finger. A raised middle finger, if you must know. The stock is basically telling “fuck you.”
VERDICT: DO NOT BUY. Do not short neither, because when you recognize a “pattern” like this one, you never know what might happen next. The stock might go up just to say a big “fuck you” to you.