Calling a bottom on the Stock Market

So everything is going horrible! Trump got bad midterms results! China is crumbling/paper economy/bubble. Bitcoin is crumbling/paper whatever/bubble. Terrible tech sales. NVDA graphics cards are crap. Apple is selling so few iPhones. Trump is crazy. Civil unrest. Kavanaugh.

Blah blah blah blah blah.

I’m here to tell you none of this matters. It’s all manipulation, hysteria and manipulation by the media. So they can grab your shares for cheap.

Do you really think NVDA is really worth half of what it was worth a month ago? Based on one, 1 month of GPU sales? Do you really think China is going to war with the US? Do you really think the economy is doing much worse than it was just 2 months ago? With unemployment at record lows, tons of optimism from business owners and earnings results that, overall, weren’t all that bad?

This is all manipulation by big funds. They spread their lies on big medias, then sell to induce a crash. It’s hard to do because 95% of stocks are held long-term and never change hands. So they sell their shares quickly hoping to hit some stop losses and induce panic.

They’ve done it hundreds of times before, they’ll do it hundreds of times again.

But when you look at hard stats, the hard data: these firm significantly underperform the general market. If the market rises 10%, their fund rises 6%. Long-term, hedge funds, mutual funds and all that get CRUSHED by a single buy and hold the S&P 500, and that’s before the insane fees they charge.

I am officially calling a bottom on the stock market on 11/20, at a S&P 500 value of roughly 265, based on the following elements:

  1. Christmas coming, December is often a very good month for stocks.
  2. January is also good, with plenty of people investing (or spending) their annual bonus
  3. Economy is doing very well.
  4. Stocks are trading at the same level they were at the beginning of the year, which makes little sense to me given the buybacks, economy growth, etc.
  5. GDP is soaring
  6. This China stuff is massively overrated. It didn’t matter this Summer and now, all of a sudden, it’s a catastrophe?

Go long SPY for the rest of the year. At least give me credit for getting my stuff out while everything panics.

Over a 9% stock market “crash,” nothing more.

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