The day I almost bought Concordia International Corp

I remember the day I almost bought Concordia International Corp (TSE:CXR) perfectly: June 17th, 2016, a Friday. The morning was relatively cold and I had a little $10,000-$15,000 to invest. I looked at Valeant, by far one of the biggest story of the last year, and pondered about it for a while. It was down 90% from its top and it seemed like one of those companies that could come back; after all, several prominents “analysts” and “experts” recommended it even at $300:

valeant-top-pick

I’ve got some news for you, Mr. Donville: within a year, it will be trading at 1.4x your “projected earnings.”

So anyway, I quickly dismissed buying Valeant for the 100th time in my life and then I looked at another, at least equally promising company, Concordia International. This was what I was seeing at the time:

concordia

It seemed like a steady grower who had crashed 80% with next to nothing to explain it; unlike Valeant, it did not have the ghost company problems, nor were there any major accounting flaws. To quote a certain “pundit:”

Concordia International top pick

“Unfortunately.”

So anyway, there I was on a cold morning of June 17th, 2016, when I made the decision to buy 500 shares of Concordia International at roughly $29.17 per share. I’ve spent hours and hours researching and perusing years and years of financial statements and studied their products carefully, all this to come to the conclusion that they are not related to Valeant, have nothing to do with Valeant and are nothing like Valeant. Plus, it already crashed 80%, so what do I reasonably have to lose, right? Right?

So I fill my buy order, ready to unleash my buying power at Concordia International:

Almost buying Concordia international

And then… I don’t know man, I really don’t know, I guess I freeze. Three things go through my mind:

  1. Yes, the stock is probably underpriced. It will probably slowly recover from there
  2. You researched everything there was to research about this company. They have good products on the market, right now, and they are profitable. They have nowhere near Valeant’s debt levels or risky business deals.
  3. That being said, you’ve never, ever made money from any pharmaceutical investment in your life.

I take a long sigh, step away from the computer and go for a walk. Then, I come to the conclusion that I should probably go enjoy the summer instead of worrying about a pharmaceutical I know nothing about.

I think about my friend who lost his life on Valeant (we went out last Saturday and he is as convinced Valeant will come back as the average /r/the_donald poster thinks Donald Trump will win the US presidency) and I think to myself: “Do I really want to put myself in that position?”

I spend the week-end playing poker and drinking and, by monday, I forget all about CXR – call it a bad feeling.

This is what happened to Concordia International since then

Concordia International down 96% since top

I’d call it a disaster, but I found that in life, generally, every disaster has a silver lining. This is just pure hell.

I’ll be frank, I have no idea why CXR crashed since then, nor do I even want to know. It is down 96% since its top one year ago and my gut feeling when looking at this graph is that it’s going to zero.

I’m not even google what happened to that company. I have no idea how you go from $5B in market to $250M in less than a year. But when I look at this graph, I am reminded of that fateful day where I almost invested into this piece of shit.

Remember, remember the June 17th of 2016, where I almost invested in a garbage company.

Seriously, how can a company possibly be so bad? These guys are even worse than Angie’s List, if that’s possible. I’d rather invest in WebMD than this piece of shit stock.

I’m not curious the slightest to figure out what happened to TSE:CXR. All I know is that I almost wasted 10 grands on it. Heck, I couldn’t even tell you what “saved” me – my instinct, perhaps? But if I am to sum it up, I would sum it up like that:

  • If a stock crashed 80%, it’s rarely for no reason.
  • If you can’t figure out why a stock crashed 80%, rest assured that some people with insider knowledge and contacts can and they are usually those selling their shares to you.
  • For fuck’s sake Frank, never invest in fucking pharmaceutical companies ever again.

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